Recently, in March 2024, Cuba witnessed large-scale protests due to rising prices, economic downturn, and hardships in people's livelihoods. Similar protests had occurred in Cuba in 2021 as well. At that time,  I had written a commentary on the protests. I am posting this article again.

Starting on July 11, 2021, Cuba witnessed large-scale protest demonstrations, with thousands of Cubans taking to the streets of the capital, Havana, and major cities, chanting slogans like "freedom" and singing revolutionary songs, leading to intense clashes with law enforcement that have yet to fully subside. This marked a highly unusual occurrence of mass political protest activities in Cuba since the Communist Party took power in 1959. Cuba is one of the few remaining Leninist-style socialist one-party authoritarian states in the world, strategically located near the United States, garnering significant international attention to its protests. People are curious about its causes, speculating about its potential outcomes and impacts. The international community, especially countries with special ties to Cuba like the United States, closely monitors the developments of these protests, poised to respond accordingly.

The Cuban protests stem from the public health crisis and economic turmoil brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic. After the global spread of COVID-19, many countries, especially developing ones like Cuba, faced severe challenges. Despite having a relatively robust healthcare system, Cuba struggled to contain the spread of the virus. What particularly angered the populace was the Cuban government's refusal to join the international vaccine distribution program (COVAX), opting instead to develop its own vaccines, but progress was slow, supply was inadequate, and people doubted the effectiveness of the vaccines.

Moreover, COVID-19 severely impacted Cuba's fragile economy. According to Reuters, the Cuban economy contracted by 10.9% in 2020 and declined by an additional 2% in the first six months of the following year. Tourism is a vital industry for Cuba, but COVID-19 dealt a devastating blow to it, leaving many Cubans in the tourism sector without income and causing Cuba to lack sufficient foreign currency to purchase essential resources like food and fuel, further hindering the development of primary and secondary industries. Cuba plunged into an even more severe shortage of goods than usual, forcing many Cubans to queue for essential supplies.

However, COVID-19 merely acted as a catalyst; the root causes of the protests in Cuba lie in the long-standing authoritarian political system and the dilapidated planned economy model, along with the suppression of people's freedoms and resulting material scarcity and widespread poverty.

Since the victory of the Cuban Revolution in 1959, Cuba has long practiced one-party dictatorship politically, with the Cuban Communist Party monopolizing political power and banning the existence of political opposition forces. Basic elements of democratic politics, such as multiparty elections, freedom of association and assembly, and the right to protest, are entirely absent in Cuba. Economically, Cuba has long adhered to a planned economy and a state-owned economic system, leading to low productivity and a lack of economic vitality among the people. Although Cuba's political and economic system has achieved some successes, such as a comprehensive social security and public service system including free education, healthcare, and housing (with quality not as poor as that in North Korea or pre-reform China, and resource allocation relatively fair), as well as a significantly better security environment compared to other Latin American countries, the overall drawbacks outweigh the benefits.

After the collapse of the Soviet bloc in the 1990s, Cuba began gradual reforms, taking bigger steps into the 21st century. Following the 2011 Sixth Congress of the Communist Party of Cuba, then-General Secretary Raúl Castro implemented measures such as economic marketization, attracting foreign investment, loosening political and ideological control, legal reforms, and improving relations with the United States. Under these measures, the Cuban economy showed some improvement, with a certain increase in national income, and the external environment for Cuba also improved. In 2016, US-Cuba relations began to normalize, with President Obama making a historic visit to Cuba. The future of Cuba seemed bright.

However, after Donald Trump took office in 2016, he reversed almost all of Obama's policies and agreements regarding US-Cuba relations and reinstated sanctions against Cuba. This was a heavy blow to Cuba, leading to worsened diplomatic relations, severe economic damage, and setbacks for reformist factions within the party, resulting in the rise of conservative forces. Cuba once again became more closed-off, at least halting its progress toward greater openness. Its refusal to join the international vaccine distribution led by Western countries reflects its isolationist stance.

In addition to the sudden deterioration of the external environment following Trump's presidency, the stagnation of Cuban reforms naturally has internal causes as well. Compared to countries like China and Vietnam, Cuba has been much less open, especially in terms of marketization. Cuba's economy is backward, but its social security system is relatively robust, leading to a lack of strong willingness for change from top to bottom. While Cuba's political dictatorship is not harsh, it is closed and conservative. Under this "mild dictatorship," social contradictions are not severe, making it easy for both the regime and the people to be content with the status quo, lacking the courage to make drastic changes. Consequently, Cuba's reform efforts have been sporadic, with no clear results over the long term.

The outbreak of the current protests was stimulated by the pandemic-induced socioeconomic crisis, which fueled the growth of opposition forces. When people's health and basic needs were threatened by the epidemic, they finally stopped tolerating and accommodating, leading to this late protest.

Facing the protests, Cuban authorities have employed both soft and hard tactics. On one hand, Cuba's top leader, the First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba, acknowledged the need for government improvement and implemented measures such as lifting import restrictions to address shortages and increasing wages. On the other hand, military and police forces were deployed to forcefully disperse demonstrations, arrest protesters, detain activists, and temporarily cut off the internet. Officially, the economic and public health crises were blamed on the United States' blockade and sanctions.

The protests in Cuba triggered strong reactions from the United States, which has a complicated relationship with the island nation. The Biden administration expressed support for the Cuban protesters, but unlike the Trump administration, which sought to dismantle Communist rule, Biden and his left-leaning government are not actively seeking to overthrow the Cuban government. Meanwhile, Cuban exile groups in the United States strongly support and assist the protests in Cuba, calling for international attention to stop the repression of protesters by the Cuban government.

The situation in Cuba also involves the fierce ideological divide across Latin America. The Communist Party of Cuba positions itself as a model for left-wing revolution and leftist regimes in Latin America and supports other leftist forces in the region. Consequently, left-wing governments in Latin America tend to support the Cuban government. Conversely, right-wing forces view the Cuban government as a foe and actively support anti-government movements. Following the outbreak of protests in Cuba, left-leaning governments like Venezuela and Nicaragua unsurprisingly supported the Cuban government, while right-leaning governments like Brazil, Uruguay, and Ecuador sided with the protesters. Some left-wing leaders, such as Mexican President Obrador, expressed sympathy for the protesters while opposing foreign intervention in Cuba's internal affairs. It is worth noting that while most left-wing forces in Latin America do not endorse Cuba's authoritarian model, they support Cuba out of shared socialist sentiments, anti-American and anti-imperialist principles, and practical necessity. Similarly, right-wing forces in Latin America supporting democratic protests often have tangled connections with previous authoritarian right-wing military regimes.

The protests in Cuba are unlikely to lead to the collapse of the Communist regime. However, they mark the beginning of a new chapter in Cuban history. Opposition forces within Cuba have organized and grown in scale, and dissenting voices have transitioned from the private sphere to public spaces. The Cuban government must acknowledge the increasingly assertive and rebellious spirit of the populace and can no longer afford to postpone meaningful reforms.